Not Investment Advice

Everyone ’Got’ SpaceX. Almost Nobody Got It Directly.

The biggest IPO in history is done. SpaceX went public Friday at a $1.77T valuation, ~4x oversubscribed, then popped ~19% on day one to a ~$2T close — minting ~4,000 millionaires. The chingus recorded on the eve of it and spent the night on the catch: most of the "I'm in SpaceX" crowd got there through SPVs stacked four and five layers deep. The same week, Jeff Bezos raises a $12B pre-seed at a $41B valuation for a company with no product, and Eric floats a dark theory about why VCs really wrote the check (hint: it's the logo, not the cap table). Plus: Coupang's record $409M data-breach fine and the bow that could've shrunk it, a Gemini-powered Siri nobody bought Apple for, SoftBank's $6B OpenAI margin loan getting told no, and Cloudflare's Matthew Prince naming Vinod Khosla on his way out.Three VCs, one mic, three opinions you won't hear at a fund meeting. Eric Bahn (Hustle Fund), Ian Park (ex-sovereign wealth fund), Kevin Jiang (Mangusta Capital).CHAPTERS 0:00 Hot chingu summer: SpaceX IPO eve 1:11 Why this isn't the top yet (Anthropic + OpenAI still to come) 3:49 The valuation arms race: from $1B to $1T outcomes 5:08 The K-shaped fund economy eating the middle 6:19 Nested SPVs and how everyone "got" SpaceX 9:21 Bezos raises a $12B pre-seed for Prometheus 15:11 Eric's dark theory: logo-stacking to impress LPs 18:58 Apple's Gemini-powered Siri (and who it's really for) 23:53 Coupang's record $409M data-breach fine 30:13 When a billionaire becomes soft power 35:41 SoftBank's $6B OpenAI margin loan stalls 41:50 Matthew Prince names Vinod Khosla 48:03 Sign-off: nothing here is investment advice

Wall Street’s open. The redemption window isn’t.

Money is doing two contradictory things at once this week. The front door is wide open: Anthropic filed its confidential S-1 ahead of OpenAI, SpaceX priced a $75 billion listing for June 12, and Masa Son is on CNBC calling AI “50x bigger” than the dot-com boom. The back door is bolted shut: Cliffwater could only return a third of what its LPs asked for, and Partners Group gated its flagship buyout fund and lost 17% of its market cap in a day. The chingus spent the episode pulling on that thread — plus why Ian thinks your next AI model lives on your laptop, not in the cloud. Let’s get into it.

SpaceX IPO, Sam vs. Elon, Polymarket Ban, Anthropic Earnings

SpaceX & Anthropic Deal, Cloudflare Layoff, Gamestop & eBay, and Sam Altman

Join us as we dive into the spicy world of tech and business in this episode of the Three Commas Podcast! 🚀In this episode, we discuss the latest drama surrounding OpenAI, Elon Musk's lawsuit, and the implications for the AI industry. We also explore GameStop's bold move to acquire eBay and what it means for the future of meme stocks.Key takeaways:* The fallout from Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and its impact on the tech landscape.* GameStop's surprising proposal to acquire eBay and the challenges ahead.* Insights into the evolving dynamics of the AI market and public perception.Timestamps:00:00 Chingus — the new besties02:27 Sam Altman's leaked texts to Mira Murati08:42 Elon Musk is running both sides of the OpenAI story13:30 Are OpenAI's products actually getting better?15:25 SpaceX cuts a multi-year compute deal with Anthropic19:53 Should xAI just pivot to hardware?24:13 DeepSeek's $7B raise and the "Chinese discount"26:33 Anthropic's 5D chess — from DoD risk-list to IPO29:18 Cloudflare cuts 1,100 jobs and drops 24%33:06 "We don't count you as an AI company"34:43 OpenAI is the canary in the coal mine35:38 GameStop's $56B bid for eBay40:29 The unprepped bro CEO archetype46:30 Sign off (chingu, hippo poop, see you next week)What's your take on the latest tech drama? Drop your thoughts in the comments!Subscribe for weekly insights and analysis on the latest in tech and business!#ThreeCommasPodcast #TechNews #BusinessTrends

AI just blew up a $5.7B PE deal

Three VCs, one mic, three opinions you won’t hear at a fund meeting. Hosted by Eric, Ian, and Kevin.----------------------------------------Toma Bravo just handed Medallia to its creditors and ate an estimated $5.7 billion in equity value — the largest LBO write-off since 2008. The story sounds like a one-firm miscalculation, but underneath it is something bigger: AI is starting to reprice every SaaS multiple anyone underwrote in 2021. We also got into Beijing forcing the unwind of a $2B Meta deal after the money had already wired, the Powell succession drama, and why Ian thinks Middle Eastern LP capital calls are a flight risk.

Cursor for $60B, Tesla’s Lie, and FTX’s Lost Empire

This week, Sam Bankman-Fried tweeted from prison about the FTX portfolio he could have held — Anthropic, SpaceX, Cursor, Solana, Robinhood — and the boys spent half the episode doing the math on what might have been the greatest VC fund ever assembled by an alleged fraudster. Meanwhile, Elon quietly admitted that 4 million Tesla owners were lied to about Full Self-Driving, SpaceX put a $60 billion option on Cursor, and Apple picked a CEO who has literally never made a LinkedIn post. Recorded at 9:30pm Pacific from three time zones, two hemispheres, and one very tired Papa Eric.

Anthropic Just Lapped OpenAI and Nobody’s Chill

EP2: Three Commas Podcast00:00 Intro — Disneyland, Tequila Brands & The AI Editorial Bot02:35 Anthropic Passes OpenAI: $30B ARR — Can You Trust the Numbers?11:56 Claude Mythos Finds 27-Year-Old Bugs — Groundbreaking AI or Just Great PR?18:06 Meta Mu Spark Launches to Crickets — What Went Wrong32:00 The SaaS-pocalypse: Multiples Down 70% & Ian Built 25 Tools for $20039:09 OpenAI's Dumpster Fire: New Yorker Profile + C-Suite Exodus51:47 Outro — Is OpenAI SoftBank's Uber or WeWork?

Is JP Morgan Selling Insurance Against the AI Bubble?

00:00 - Intro & weekly roundup01:07 - Uber invests $1.25B in Rivian for robotaxis04:17 - Ian: why he stopped caring about cars06:15 - SpaceX IPO — no lockups, biggest offering ever?09:28 - Google's TurboQuant: the "Middle Out" compression breakthrough14:10 - Helium, the Middle East war, and chip supply chains16:03 - Apple opens Siri to Claude, GPT, and all AI models18:51 - Kevin: Apple hasn't truly innovated since Steve Jobs19:48 - Ian's Vision Pro confession (he uses it in bed)23:04 - JP Morgan launches AI credit default swaps — Big Short vibes26:41 - OpenAI kills Sora and walks away from a $1B Disney deal29:35 - Is consumer AI cooked?34:51 - Claude Mythos leak — is Anthropic about to IPO?38:16 - SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic: will these IPOs open the floodgates?42:35 - Manus, China, and what happens when you don't mess with the CCP49:48 - The podcast is getting a new name — submit your suggestions

EP13: $250B Merger Mess, AI Skeptics vs. Token Addicts, and a Matchmaker Who Said No to VCs

Elon admits XAI was "not built right" and needs a full rebuild — bad news for SpaceX investors. Finance bros still won't let go of Bloomberg terminals, and a new poll shows most Americans are skeptical about AI. Meanwhile, Yann LeCun raises $1B for a company with no product, and Ian reveals a matchmaking startup that got 1,000 signups in 5 days with zero funding.0:00 Intro1:03 Elon Says XAI Was "Not Built Right" — SpaceX Investors Pay the Price5:34 Claude Dispatch, Channels & the AI Power-User Lifestyle10:55 Finance Bros Won't Drop Bloomberg & America's AI Skepticism20:23 Google Is Quietly Winning the AI Race24:30 Yann LeCun Raises $1B With No Product — AMI Labs31:43 Ian Launches "Ian and Friends" — Matchmaking for Global Koreans38:39 Bootstrap vs. VC: When Founders Say No to Money

EP12: Two Villains, One Accidental Hero, Zero Saints | Anthropic vs OpenAI vs Trump

This week on Not Investment Advice, Eric, Ian, and Kevin break down the Anthropic vs. OpenAI drama after Trump's DOD labeled Anthropic a supply chain risk — and Sam Altman swooped in to sign the contract hours later. Plus, NVIDIA scales back its AI investments, OpenAI's IPO march raises WeWork comparisons, Apple drops a $499 MacBook aimed at killing Chromebooks, and Cluely's founder admits he lied about revenue.Read Ian's full article: http://thelonggame.vc—🕐 TIMESTAMPS0:00 — Intro 1:38 — Anthropic labeled a supply chain risk by the DOD 3:05 — Sam Altman signs DOD contract hours later, ChatGPT boycotts begin 4:55 — "Trump and Altman Made Dario a Martyr" — Ian's breakdown 7:23 — Claude hits #1 in the App Store, accidental marketing win 12:35 — OpenAI backs out of direct checkout in GPT apps 14:59 — Why AI companies keep failing at consumer products 17:42 — Jensen pulls back NVIDIA investment in OpenAI and Anthropic 19:05 — The circular economy problem: vendor financing and systemic risk 23:39 — OpenAI IPO targeting end of 2026 — is it the next WeWork? 28:56 — What this means for Anthropic's IPO timing 34:28 — Apple MacBook Neo: a $499 Trojan Horse to kill Chromebooks 42:46 — Samsung Galaxy S26: better than iPhone? 43:47 — Cluely founder Roy Lee admits he lied about ARR 51:21 — Closing thoughts—🎙️ Hosts: Eric Bahn, Ian Park, Kevin Jiang 📩 Subscribe for weekly takes on VC, startups, and tech from three investors who don't sugarcoat it.#venturecapital #ai #openai #anthropic #nvidia #apple #startups #vc #tech #podcast