Not Investment Advice

In this pre-Thanksgiving episode, Eric, Kevin, and Ian break down Nvidia's earnings, the looming Private Credit bubble, and why Google’s Gemini 3 might finally win the AI race. They also debate Cursor’s $2.3B valuation, expose the misuse of "ARR" metrics by startups, and discuss the internal turmoil at Sequoia Capital.00:00 - Intro: VC hibernation mode 01:26 - Nvidia Earnings & AI Bubble anxiety 03:53 - The Private Credit Bubble explained 08:49 - Gemini 3: Why Google will win 14:00 - Excel vs. Google Sheets debate 18:40 - Cursor’s $2.3B valuation & multiples 23:45 - The AI Retention problem 26:10 - The "ARR" Lie: Why metrics are misleading 31:27 - GenSpark & VCs chasing hype 35:11 - Sequoia Capital: Turnover & missed deals 39:09 - Why VCs are behind on tech 42:56 - Mega Funds vs. Emerging Managers 45:34 - Outro🔑 Key TakeawaysPrivate Credit Risks: Lack of diligence is creating a "subprime" risk in corporate debt.Google's Advantage: Vertical integration (Chips + Cloud + Apps) gives Gemini the long-term edge.Metric Manipulation: Investors need to look past "ARR" (Annualized Revenue Runway) and check actual contracts.VC Shakeups: Even top firms like Sequoia aren't immune to leadership turnover and missed opportunities.Disclaimer: This content is for entertainment purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

In this week’s episode of Not Investment Advice, Eric, Kevin, and Ian break down the most important tech and AI stories from the past few weeks in Silicon Valley.As always, this show reflects our personal views and is not investment advice.00:00 – Introduction00:35 – Why Silicon Valley news cycles feel faster02:10 – AI-generated music reaches Billboard #105:10 – Personalization and the rise of consumer AI music tools06:45 – The Pope’s statement on AI and healthcare ethics09:45 – Human connection vs AI interaction11:00 – The future of relationships in an AI-driven world13:00 – Legal AI: Harvey raises at an $8B valuation16:40 – AI margins: OpenAI vs Anthropic20:30 – Token costs, price wars, and switching friction24:10 – LLM memory and user lock-in26:05 – Gemini vs ChatGPT: workflow differences30:40 – Yann LeCun leaves Meta to launch an AI startup33:10 – How much capital he could raise today36:20 – Founder energy and late-career entrepreneurship38:10 – CLUE, virality, and the limits of hype42:30 – Retention, product value, and competitive note-taking apps44:10 – McKinsey’s AI 2025 report: enterprise adoption status47:40 – Sequoia leadership transition and industry rumors51:35 – Closing thoughts & next episode preview

In the inaugural episode of "Not Investment Advice," emerging managers Eric Bahn, Ian Park, and Kevin Jiang, VCs of Asian descent, tackle representation and cultural barriers in Silicon Valley before diving into the week's hottest market debates. Topics include the legitimacy of prediction markets (Koshi/PolyMarket), the AI infrastructure "bubble" theory (trillion-dollar commitments and model convergence), the hyper-competitive AI talent war (billion-dollar contracts and the rise of the agent), and the profound threat of Sora deepfakes on intellectual property, public trust, and identity (Worldcoin, virtual actors).00:00:00 Podcast Introduction and Identity00:09:49 Discussion on Prediction Markets and Gambling00:19:20 AI Data Center Investments and Market Bubble Concerns00:30:41 AI Talent Compensation and Industry Impact00:48:31 Sora, Deepfakes, and the Future of Reality00:54:25 Host Introductions and Podcast Closing